What exactly is value investing, is it for you and why does Charlie Munger call it "twaddle"?

I got a note from a friend today about value investing and he equated it to buying a broadly diversified set of stocks via a low cost index fund. To me, this approach is passive investing and BY FAR the  best approach for most investors, me included. So why the heck am I picking stocks? Well, to be clear, I use a low cost passive approach through Vanguard for over half of my meager holdings. But I love the game of picking stocks. In fact, I think I'm addicted to it because over the course of about 20 years in the market, my own picks have been trounced by my passive funds and yet I still pick stocks. I just think it's fun and I love reading about interesting companies and testing my hypotheses about them using real money. Sure, I hate seeing my dough go up in flames, but when I get something right, well, I just forget all the times I got shellacked.

But back to value investing.

What is it exactly? It's simply buying an undervalued stock and waiting for the Mr. Market to realize his idiocy and price the stock accurately. But what exactly is an undervalued stock? I go to the Oracle of Omaha, who defines undervalued as a business priced for less than its intrinsic value. And therein lies the rub. How on earth do you figure out the intrinsic value of a business? If you're a person who enjoys reading financial statements for hours every day, has a brain that can do differential equations pretty much instantly, and an elephantine memory -- all qualities of Buffett -- you can probably do it. In Buffett's early days, he was able to find companies that were wildly undervalued for the simple reason that while information was hard to come by (there was no internet!), he was willing to do the required sleuthing through reams of reports and piles of newspapers AND had the ability to make sense of it all AND retain information so that when he found anomalies he could recall them instantly and correlate them with other data in his brain (truly, he is not a computer user or note taker so far as I know, he just remembers EVERYTHING) and make buying decisions. Can you do that? I certainly can't and I doubt most other mortals can either.

But wait, there's more.

Another core aspect of value investing is what Buffett calls a "margin of safety", meaning a stock must be undervalued by quite a bit so that even if an investor is a bit off on his intrinsic value estimation he still comes out ahead.

And more...

Charlie Munger, Buffett's partner at Berkshire, claims, rightly so in my opinion, that an investor must not only know his circle of competence but also not step outside of it. For this reason, Buffett and Munger stay away from businesses they don't understand. I read a great anecdote about how they start their evaluation process. They have two piles: one is stocks to consider and investigate further, the other is stocks that are "too hard". And this sorting is ruthless. If they feel at all murky on why a business might be a good investment or not, they put it in the "too hard" pile, meaning they pass on just about everything (which explains why Berkshire has so much cash).

Wait, two more things about value investing (at least the way I understand it, which is based on what I've read about Buffett and Munger)...

First, and this is straightforward, a value investor holds stocks for a long time, at least 3-5 years, but Buffett prefers forever.

Second, value investing, as practiced by Buffett and Munger, is not at all passive or even what I would call conservative. These guys are as active as investors get, actually taking full ownership of many of their investments and gently guiding the management of the businesses they own. Further, when they bet, they bet big. Munger talks about this a lot. Because he and Buffett stay in their circle of competence and have a system (determine intrinsic value and margin of safety) when they bet, they bet big, and not just in terms of total dollars, but also in terms of the total percentage of their holdings. Here's Munger: ...the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time they don’t. It’s just that simple.

I can't help myself, here's one more tidbit about value investing, which I agree with:

The whole concept of dividing it up into ‘value’ and ‘growth’ strikes me as twaddle. It’s convenient for a bunch of pension fund consultants to get fees prattling about and a way for one adviser to distinguish himself from another. But, to me, all intelligent investing is value investing – acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.
— Charlie Munger

Is greed good right now?

An oft repeated Warren Buffett aphorism is: investors are wise to “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” And right now, I'm thinking like Buffett (or this guy>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>)!

Are investors fearful right now? I'm not really sure. Yes, the Dow has been pummeled in the last few months -- gotta love October -- but it's still up around 8% for the year. The economy seems to be humming along. Unemployment is low. Inflation is nowhere to be seen, at least not meaningful inflation. And while the Fed has been raising rates, they're hardly doing it with a lot of enthusiasm. The biggest risks seem to be Trump's trade war with China, a right now issue, which is the kind of issue people notice, and the spiraling US debt, which is a long term issue and not the kind people worry about very much. So the big question is, how much of a hit to our economy will the trade war be? I've heard some people say it will negate the tax cut. I guess that's possible. But the truth is, as with so many other things financial, no one knows for sure. 

Here's my take on today's market:  I think investors are certainly feeling skittish, especially with regard to richly valued stocks, but I don't think they're all ready to do the proverbial Wall Street self-defenestration.

As for me, I'm always a pushmepullyou investor: doom and gloom on one end and irrational exuberance on the other, with exuberance usually being the stronger of the two, for the simple reason that it feels better to be optimistic and, candidly, I don't know anything about short-selling, save for the fact it can make you really rich or really poor really fast. (Note: I should learn more about how to short stuff, because I'm leaving out half of what it means to invest if I'm only betting on what might go up.)

So... what have I found amidst the bones, blood and gristle of Mr. Market's killing field? A few things, namely:

Talend (TLND), a company that specializes in simplifying the process of identifying and integrating the right data sets for data scientists, so they can perform a bit of insight-generating alchemy. Sounds highly complexified -- and it is -- but from my perch at Dell I see the need for this kind of thing as akin to water in the desert, as the world moves toward (caution, jargon ahead!) a data economy. Given the richness of the opportunity, TLND is not the only game in town, but they seem like a good bet for three reasons: 1) as I already pointed out, technologies that help unlock the value of data have blindingly bright future; 2) TLND has been recommended by the Motley Fool Stock Advisor, which I have subscribed to since day one and trust, and is in Gartner's Magic Quadrant for Data Integration Tools and 3) TLND's price recently dropped about 40% in just a few days, following an earnings report. Reason number three might sound like a red flag but to me it's the opposite. TLND was, as they say, priced for perfection, so while the the company actually beat its guidance, when TLND guided below expectations for the current quarter, everybody panicked. Yes, it could fall further but over the next three to five years, I expect Talend to more than double. Fingers crossed.

Arista Networks (ANET), makes software defined networking gear, which sounds geeky and nerdy and tech-bro-ish -- and it is all those things -- but here's my English Major definition of of what software defined means: the software tells the hardware what it is. Yes, that's WAY oversimplified and obviously software can't tell a laptop it's a fire hydrant and expect any good to come from it, but the magic of software defined computer gear is that it separates the high value stuff (software) from the commodity stuff (hardware). So Arista can buy the highest performance commodity hardware,  de-commodify it through software and then sell it for a handsome margin. Pretty nice business model. Why did I buy it now? Well, like TLND, ANET is way below it's high in August of ~$300 and now sells for around ~$240. Also like TLND, ANET's last quarter exceeded expectations but guidance was cautious. Could it fall further? Sure. But over the long term, ANET is the future of networking and I see $$$ signs ahead!

To raise money for TLND and ANET, I sold Activision and 3D Systems, both of which I still believe in but don't really fit my growth strategy (more on my strategy in a later post).

Attention voyeurs: here is a peak at my portfolio of stock picks.

Like most stock pickers, I tend to mis-remember my failures but can recite my successes with decimal point accuracy, so with this post my intention is to capture my thinking in punctilious pixels and then be able to look backward, learn and maybe not keep making stupid the same stupid mistakes over and over again. So here goes. Listed below are all the stocks I'm holding right now, why I bought them and how long I'm likely to keep them. In the coming years, I will update this list with sells and buys and whys.

3D Systems (DDD)
Bought: 01.16.2018
Price: $11.37
Gain as of 10.17.2018: ~4%
Who does DDD do? "...provides three-dimensional (3D) printing products and services worldwide." - Simply Wall Street
Why did I buy it? I first heard about DDD at Dell World in 2013, when Ping Fu, founder of Geomagic, a company DDD had just bought, gave a lunch time speech. I was mesmerized. After hearing her speak, I bought her autobiography, “Bend, Not Break.” Such a story I had never read, so much grit and enthusiasm. After the conference, I researched DDD and decided to buy. Not the best decision, though I made a teensy bit of money. After selling and mulling I looked for a chance to buy back in on the simple premise that I believed in Ping and I believed in 3D printing. 3D printing is here to stay and will only grow in importance, and I believe that DDD will thrive because they are focused on things like medical products (perfect for low volume, high customization) rather than desktop 3D printers (they make these but they are not betting the farm on them).
What worries me about it? 3D printing is a tough market. There are so many players -- including the ink jet champ HP -- and, well, a lot could go wrong. Plus, the valuation is pretty rich. This is a risky one.
How long will I hold it? Until the bitter or, with luck sweet, end!
20/20 hindsight: None really, except that I veered away from my strategy to buy this one.

Activision (ATVI)
Bought on 11.21.17
Price: ~ $65
Gain as of 10.31.2018: ~7%
What does ATVI do? "...develops and distributes content and services on video game consoles, personal computers (PC), and mobile devices." - Simply Wall Street
Why did I buy it? I saw a presentation at last year’s Dell Technologies World that convinced me of the importance of gaming software beyond games. For just about any kind of realistic simulation of an environment -- either on a screen, on a headset (virtual reality) or through glasses (augmented reality) in which you can move around and do things, you need game-engine style software, speed and resolution, all of which ATVI knows as well as anyone else. And games continue to be big. There are even new professional leagues for games and ATVI is leading the charge. Further, I think ATVI could make money by expanding merchandise licensing (toys based on game characters) and even movies.
What worries me about it?
Debt. It’s been going up quite a bit, but is still handily covered by cash flow. Revenue and income growth are around 13%, with no obvious catalysts for change. Free games are on the rise. In fact, there is one called Fortnite that EVERYBODY is playing, which means they’re not spending as much time with ATVI games. I think ATVI could meet this threat by offering free games with in-game purchases; in fact, I think they’re already doing this. Their dividend is paltry, about .5%, well under what I could get for cash, which currently is about 2%.
How long will I hold it? 3-5 years, longer if game engines find buyer in non-game markets, for example training, or virtual travel, etc.
20/20 hindsight: I started paying close attention to ATVI when it was around $20. Motley Fool was re-recommending it, the company was in good shape, but I was worried that the rise in free smart phone games presented a clear and present danger. I was dead wrong.

Applied Materials (AMAT)
Bought: 04.30.2018
Price: $49
Loss as of 10.31.18: ~28%
What does AMAT do? "...provides manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, display, and related industries worldwide." - Simply Wall Street
Why did I buy it? I hate to introduce a so soon but facts is facts and AMAT SUCKS. I bought for three reasons: (1) I thought concerns over China's intention to start making more of its own stuff and Trump's trade war were overblown and AMAT had already been beaten down enough;( 2) Simply Wall Street (one of two investment services I pay for, the other is the Motley Fool Stock Advisor) noted that AMAT was trading for about 40% of future cash flow, paid a decent dividend and could easily make interest payments on its ample debt (debt is normally a non-starter for me!); (3) I figured the Internet of Things (IOT) would drive demand for a shit of chips and AMAT makes equipment that makes chips.
What worries me about it? The fact that China has made clear their intentions to make their own semiconductor fab gear makes me very nervous. Further swelling my worry wart is Trump's trade war and AMAT' debt (it's not horrific, it's just a lot.)
How long will I hold it? Tough one. I'll either hold for a few years, maybe longer, or dump it soon the money into another company that's also being ground into the dirt by Mr. Market's well heeled heel.
20/20 hindsight: A mistake. I should have put more "stock" in the China and trade war threats. Also, AMAT does not fit my strategy.*

BlackBerry (BB)
Bought: 09.28.18
Bought: 10.3.18
Bought: 10.9.18
Avg. price: ~ $10.70
Loss as of 10.31.18: ~11%
What does BB do? BB "...operates as an enterprise software and services company focused on securing and managing endpoints in the Internet of Things." - Simply Wall Street
Why did I buy it? My job at Dell Technologies is to lead global messaging for Dell's Internet of Things (IoT) strategy and portfolio. To stay abreast of the rapidly evolving IoT market, I'm constantly on the lookout for interesting articles and analyst reports. Lo and behold, right in the midst of a messaging refresh project, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, which I have subscribed to since launch, recommended BB. I couldn't believe it! I mean, I knew BB hadn't been completely i-squashed by Apple's iPhone, but I was floored that MFSA was actually recommending it. I mean, that's like recommending you invest in horses after not only the Model T, but also the Model A and even the Ford V8. Well, here's the thing, BB no longer makes phones (though they still stamp their name on a few phones made by a third party). Instead, they have taken the crown jewel of the original Blackberry phones -- security -- and well down the road in the process of remaking themselves into a company that secures things, as in the Internet of Things (IoT), or Enterprise of Things, as BB cleverly call it. To me, this is a very smart move for BB (and probably the only option), as security in IoT is a monstrous challenge and in very high demand. The poster child case for secure IoT is the connected car, as well the autonomous car, and for good reason. If a hacker can take over a car's brakes or steering or so many other aspect, the end result could be serious injury or even death. Also, without effective security, the whole bright future of driverless cars goes dark in a flash.
What worries me about it? As with any other hot tech space, the IoT security market is rife with competition and there is no guarantee whatsoever that BB will survive (though I do think they will be acquired regardless of how successful they are or aren't).
20/20 hindsight: I think I did the right thing. As always my timing could have been a bit better but, well, nothing I can do about that.

Cognex (CGNX)
Bought: 07.09.14
Sold some: 03.04.16
Sold some: 10.12.16
Bought: 8.17.15
Bought: 10.30.18
Avg. price: ~$30.28
Gain as of 10.31.2018: ~53%
What does CGNX do? "...provides machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information in order to automate tasks primarily in manufacturing processes worldwide." - Simply Wall Street
Why did I buy it? I first learned about CGNX when the Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommended it. Here's why the pitch made so much sense to me: think about how many iPhones Apple's manufacturers make a day; now think about how tough it must be to inspect every step of every phone's journey from parts to finished product, think about the tolerances, the required precision, the cost to Apple's brand if a problem arises and can't be pinpointed and corrected, it's INSANE. And there you have it, why I bought CGNX, because no human can visually inspect something so complex and be positive it's right or positive it's wrong a bazillion times a day, but CGNX machine vision equipment can. Which is why Apple is a customer, along with many, many other tech makers of tricky tech stuff.
What worries me about it? Not much. My biggest worry is just that it's an expensive stock and it's the fat ones the market eats first during hard times.
How long will I hold it? A long time, years, maybe decades.
20/20 hindsight: I got this one right!

Etsy (ETSY)
Bought: 10.21.16
Bought: 10.24.16
Bought: 11.02.16
Sold some: 01.19.17
Bought: 03.09.2017
Sold some: 05.17.2017
Sold some: 01.08.2018
Sold some:02.16.18
Avg price: ~$9.75
Gain as of 10.31.2018: ~347%
What does ETSY do? Etsy.com is an e-commerce site for makers crafty, unique stuff made by artists and artisans.
Why did I buy it? ETSY first appealed to me because they are all about helping individuals (crafters, artists, etc.) sell online, the total opposite of Amazon, which sells stuff made mostly by gigantic, faceless human-rights abusing factories located in countries where the term human capital could not be more appropriate. (In fairness, AMZN serves crafty artists too but not as a focus). I figured that as more and more stuff gets mass-produced, one-of-a-kind, hand made things will become more coveted. But when ETSY ousted their CEO for a new guy who hails from Skype, one of the shittiest products ever made, I was worried the company would be milked for cash and lose its sense of purpose. So far, that does not seem to be the case, but it's still early days.
What worries me about it? The new CEO is definitely a profit-oriented guy, and while that's working nicely now, I fear he could alienate ETSY employees by being penny-wise and pound foolish and taking away perks, shit-i-fying the benefits, overpaying top dogs while the other dogs starve. I also worry that as he raises fees on sellers, he could lose both sellers and customers, as sellers abandon ETSY and buyers follow, as selection dwindles. The valuation is also pretty high.
How long will I hold it? Eons. ETSY has a great moat in its brand. If you want cool artistic stuff, ETSY is where you go to get it. Yes, FB has its crummy copy, and eBay is out there, but ETSY started out with -- and has stuck to -- a purity of purpose that I admire and think would be very hard to challenge.
20/20 hindsight: I should not have sold some of my shares so quickly. Fearful idiot!

Ionis Pharma (IONS)
Bought: 10.05.17
Bought: 11.02.16
Price: ~ $55
Loss as of 10.31.2018: ~6%
What does IONS do? "...discovers and develops RNA-targeted therapeutics." - Simply Wall Street
Why did I buy it? I was a victim of click bait! It's true. I was on Yahoo Finance one day and there was an article, sponsored of course (never read those!), with a siren song headline about three biotech stocks that looked expensive but were actually dirt cheap. The missing word, of course, was "potentially dirt cheap" but in the heat of the moment I read about all three and picked Ionis for these reasons: it's poking around in a biotech space that is not as crowded as the others, was cash flow positive, had a lot more cash than debt and (naturally)had a slew of (again, potential) big winners in its pipeline. Oh, and according to Simply Wall Street was priced about right.
What worries me about it? Nothing. IONS seems like a good company with real promise over the long term.
How long will I hold it? Years. Unless something goes horribly wrong -- say, a new IONS drug mutates the ebola virus into one that can be spread via airborne means (a sneeze, a cough) -- I think sooner or later the company will have a hit on its hands, probably several. And then Biogen will buy them!
20/20 hindsight: Other companies I invested in around the same time have done a LOT better than IONS. This is a gamble, it's not on strategy for me, but I think the downside is limited while the upside could be big, Big, BIg, BIG!

iRobot (IRBT)
Bought: 10.26.17
Price: ~$65
Gain as of 10.31.18: ~45%
What does IRBT do? - "...designs, builds, and sells robots for the consumer market worldwide." - Simply Wall Street
Why I did I buy it? When the Motley Fool Stock Advisor first recommend IRBT, the price was around $120. I was tempted but I held off and then, just like that, IRBT was down in the $50-60 range, all based on the announcement by Shark that they would start offering a cheap competitor to the IRBT’s Roomba. At that point, I bought for the simple reason that building a smart vacuum cleaner is pretty hard. If it weren’t, the Roomba would have a lot more competitors. As for IRBT’s reaction to Shark, it was, “Great, their entry will expand the market.” Looks like we were both right! Tests of Roomba vs. Shark show that the Roomba is quite a bit better, though the Shark is “good enough” if you can’t really afford a Roomba. But there's much more to the IRBT story than vacuums. At it's heart, IRBT is an expert at artificial intelligence in the realm of the home and through years of gathering data from Roombas (and now smart mops), IRBT has a moat that will be hard for anyone else to simply leap across.
What worries me about it? I worry about Amazon entering the market and leveraging all the data it’s gathered from its multitude of warehouse robots, its manufacturing chops, its customer data, its willingness to hemorrhage cash with pride... just a massive, massive threat. Of course, AMZN might buy IRBT! Doubtful because AMZN tends to "roll its own" but you never know.
How long will I hold it? Years. I believe in this company and what it's doing.
20/20 hindsight: I'm glad I had the discipline to wait for a better price, something I seem to forever struggle with.

Lam Research (LRCX)
Bought: 07.09.18
Price: ~$175
Loss as of 10.31.18: ~13%
What does LRCX do? "...designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits worldwide." - Simply Wall Street
Why I did I buy it? LRCX makes the stuff that makes chips and the world’s appetite for chips will only go up, thanks to IoT, AI and other trends. Plus, LRCX sports stellar stats such as killer kash flow, low forward P/E (8.4), strong past performance. What truly pushed me to hit the Buy button, though, was the company's very reasonable valuation (roughly 50% less than future cash flow).
How long will I hold it? Benjamin Graham, the professor who taught Buffett about value investing once said that in the short term the market is a voting machine but in the long term it's a weighing machine. Given that LRCX trades for about half its future cash flow, I think it will go up a fair bit at some point, maybe 2-4 years (a total guess, buy the way).
What worries me about it? Not too much over the long term but shorter term the chip market is notoriously cyclical. Also, as with AMAT, I worry about the China threat.
20/20 hindsight: A mistake. Yes, the company is reasonably valued and makes something the world needs but growth prospects are not too exciting (10%) and, unless IoT truly takes off and chip demand skyrockets, I don't see any big growth catalysts ahead.

Match (MTCH)
Bought: 09.23.16
Sold a bit: 09.28.18
Avg. price : ~$18
Gain as of 10.31.18: ~200%
What does MTCH do? Operates websites for dating.
Why I did I buy it? MTCH caters to the two most human of human needs: love and sex. I can’t remember if they were the first of the online dating sites but they were certainly one of them and they are who people in search of love turn to. MTCH also owns Tinder, which serves those in need of a hookup. Equally important, MTCH doesn’t pimp out its customers' dat like so many other online services; they make their money by charging for their service, that’s it. And they can charge a decent chunk of change, as a fairly recent premium version of Tinder, Tinder Gold, has proved in spades.
How long will I hold it? Till death do us part! Seriously, I plan on keeping this one for awhile.
What worries me about it? Mr. Market is in the throes of passion for MTCH and when passion fades, as it usually does a bit, MTCH’s price will fall. But in the long run, love wins.
20/20 hindsight: I think I first got the idea to buy MTCH from the Motley Fool Stock Advisor and after reading their recommendation, I looked at it more closely and went for it because the valuation was mostly sane and MTCH has a helluva moat.

PayPal (PYPL)
Bought: 11.02.17
Price: ~$72
Gain as of 10/31/2018: ~18%
What does PYPL do? "...operates as a technology platform company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide." - Simply Wall Street
Why I did I buy it? PYPL, to my knowledge, was one of the first, if not the first, technology platform for digital and mobile payments. It appeals to individuals and small businesses who don’t want to deal with the complexity and cost of banks -- or risk be turned away by banks altogether -- and found early success with eBay buyers and sellers, but has since gone global as the common man’s preferred way to pay and get paid, when cash is impractical. PYPL is still growing but already makes gobs of money, has oodles of cash on hand and very little debt. PYPL is also not dependent on other people's networks the way Apple Pay and Square are.
What worries me about it? The valuation is a little high and the competition in this space is already pretty fierce (MasterCard, VISA, Square, ApplePay, Google Pay, etc.). I'm also not sure how much of a moat PayPal has.
How long will I hold it? Five years, a decade, I think more goodness is yet to come for PYPL as more and more of the world adopts mobile payments.
20/20 hindsight: I should have bought the minute eBay sold its stake in PYPL, freeing PYPL to get back to its true mission of changing the way the world pays and gets paid.

Paycom (PAYC)
Bought: 11.2.2017
Sold a bit: 10.3.18
Avg. price: ~$78
Gain as of 10.31.18: ~61%
Why does PAYC do? "...provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) software service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States." - Simply Wall Street
Why did I buy it? PAYC takes a complex, pain-in-the-ass process that used to require pallets of paper, piles of pens, pounds of PCs and who knows what else and offers it as a cloud service. Salesforce paved the way for this kind of thing with their customer relation management (CRM) service, and I believe this approach is the future. Hell, it's the present (AWS!). Other good news: PAYC is growing pretty fast (revs + earnings) and has reduced its debt from 70% of net worth to 10%.
What worries me about it? PAYC's share price has risen fast, plus there are some serious heavyweights in their space (Oracle, Workday, ADP). But, PAYC is focused on small to medium businesses, while their competition goes after the biggest of the big (mostly).
How long will I hold it? At least at year, probably five or more.
20/20 hindsight:

SWIR (Sierra Wireless)
Bought: 10.26.15
Bought: 08.04.17
Avg. price: ~ $19.37
Loss as of 9/16/2018: ~5%
What does SWIR do? "...focuses on “intelligent wireless solutions” for IoT, including embedded chips, gateways, software and services." - SWIR website (In other words, they connect things to the Internet of Things.)
Why did I buy it? Ever since I first heard about the Internet of Things back in 2012 or so I've been a fan. IoT can sound complicated but the basic concept is pretty easy. You take thing (toaster), slap some sensors on it to detect the heat of your bread or the color of the bread's surface and you connect those sensors to the Internet so now you can load bread into your toaster at night, go to your toaster app on your phone, set the desired doneness and ready time and wake up to perfect toast every single damn day! On a more serious note, IoT is what will make autonomous cars possible, sensors in the environment will help with clean up, sensors in heavy industrial gear will alert operators to potential failures before anything bad happens, the potential is virtually limitless. And how will all these sensors connect to the Internet? Mostly without wires (cellular radio) and this is where SWIR's focus lies: embedding wireless transceivers into chips, along with supporting software and services.
What worries me about it? Every other chip maker/designer is going after IoT and SWIR's long term survival is hardly a sure thing.
How long will I hold it? Good question. Adoption of IoT has not happened as quickly as people expected it would, but it will happen and in a big way and SWIR will be ready, either as a standalone company or as a division of Broadcom or Qualcomm or maybe Intel. I willing to wait.
20/20 hindsight: No regrets, really. Just wish my timing had been better and I'd bought when it was lower.

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A (SQM)
Bought: 10.26.15
Bought: 01.20.16
Sold some: 09.19.19
Sold some: 10.12.16
Sold some: 10.13.16
Avg. price: $15.45
Gain as of 10/31/2018: ~205%
What does SQM do? produces and distributes specialty plant nutrients, iodine and its derivatives, lithium and its derivatives, industrial chemicals, potassium, and other products and services. - Simply Wall Street
Why did I buy it? SQM is the world’s largest producer of lithium and demand for lithium will rise a lot as production and sales of electric cars accelerate. Doubleplusgood: pays a ~3% dividend.
What worries me about it? My number one worry is that SQM is not a US company and has a rather sordid past, which only ended a few years ago, but at least it’s in Chile, which is reasonably stable (I think, I really have no idea). My other worry is that some wacko genius invents a battery that outperforms lithium 10 to one at a 10th the cost. Could happen.
How long will I hold it? Probably a decade, maybe longer.
20/20 hindsight: I NEVER SHOULD HAVE SOLD A SINGLE SHARE.