Thursday, April 25, 2019

Buying Zoom (ZM) because Zoom is awesome.

In the corporate world everybody HATES Skype for conference calls and LOVES Zoom (ZM). In fact, ZM is so good that at Dell Technologies, where I work, we have recently done the unthinkable: a mostly Microsoft shop (MSFT owns Skype), we have switched to ZM. And that fact right there, that's why, despite ZM's nosebleed price, I bought shares.

When ZM's price falls materially in the coming year, as I imagine it will, I will double down, and then I will just sit tight for at least 5 years. Why not wait for the price to fall if I'm so sure it will? Because by owning shares now I will be watching ZM more closely and better able to spot the dips when they occur.

Conference calls are the lifeblood of corporate America, and demand will only increase with population and an ever more mobile workforce and ZM will rule the roost. Either it goes up 5X from here in 10 years, or it doubles as the result of being acquired. That's my bet.

Monday, April 8, 2019

What would Steve do? (APPL)

Apple (APPL) is mind-bendingly frustrating these days. I used to LOVE the company's wares and vibe, but now I am indifferent, at best. What the hell is going on? Here are the missteps, as I see them:

- iTunes remains a mess. No drag and drop to add songs? An interface circa 1998? Why? What could possibly be standing in APPL's way of cleaning up iTunes? I. Do. Not. Get. It.

- iCloud storage prices are laughably high and for what? Seriously, it's WORSE than Google Photos and Photos is free. Sure, this is minor for APPL's revenue/profits on the surface. But deep down it pisses people off, makes them feel taken advantage of, kisses of death for loyalty.

- Nuking the Mag-Safe. What was that meeting like? Someone says, "Hey, I know, let's take the one thing we truly OWN in laptops, the one thing no one else has, and KILL IT."

- The Mac Pro, the FLAGSHIP Mac has not been refreshed since 2013, despite a design that does no one any good, especially professionals. Now, I have one and I love it, but I got mine for a great price and can live with its total lack of upgradability/expandability, as I'm only a hobbyist. If I were a pro and got saddled with this thing, I'd be pissed (which is why the cheese grater Mac Pro lives on in countless agencies and recording studios).

- A dog's breakfast of a product line/nomenclature. Quick, how many iPhone models are there? What are the differences? iPad Air vs iPad? Why is the iMac Pro so expensive? Etc.

There's more, but you get the point, APPL, in my opinion has lost its way. So, the trillion dollar question is, if Steve came back, what would he do?

- Kill 50% of the current product and name what remains in a way that makes sense. My product ideas are iPhone + # + Pro if super killer, create iPhone for the masses/developing world; Mac Pro, iMac + # + Pro if truly killer, iPad, iPad Mini, iPad Pro; services should be iCloud (if it works), Tunes (kill Music, keep paid tier, rewrite code), change TV to Video, add Netflix and Amazon, revenue be damned); Health (for all health related services. This little list is not the end all be all but I think it's better than what exists, a lot better.

- Add Mag-Safe to all laptops, but as a combo USB-C/Mag connector

- Dump Intel for own ARM-based chips, leave Intel be an option for Pro machines, if needed in near term, or better offer AMD's 7nm chips.

- Stay true to data privacy.

- Go all in on health and make the Mac integral to the strategy.

- Be willing to take a short term hit on the stock for long term growth. APPL could double from here and be the first $2 trillion corporation, but it's got to take some chances. Real chances, which means a miss hurts but a hit feels better than anything else.

That's my list. What do you think Steve would do?






Thursday, April 4, 2019

Is it time to sell Sierra Wireless (SWIR)?

Back in my first decade of investing -- 1995 to 2005 -- I would have sold SWIR awhile ago.

And lost money.

Nowadays, I'm much better about making short-sighted decisions to sell; instead, when times are tough for a given stock, as they are right now for SWIR, I take a hard look at the business and ask myself if my original thesis is still intact.

In the case of SWIR, it is but barely.

I bought this stock because I believe in the Internet of Things (IoT), and I am confident that sooner or later the world will need a lot more teensy chips that connect things into networks, exactly the kind of chips SWIR makes. However -- and it's a doozy of a however -- I bought SWIR when hype around IoT was frothy. Dumb. Now in 1019, the hype has subsided quite a bit and so companies like SWIR are not given a pass when earnings reports suck, which SWIR's have of late. But I still believe in IoT and I am bullish on the likelihood that as more things get connected, especially cars, a huge play for SWIR, demand for "connector" chips will go up, up and away.

And so, let the hand wringing cease. I'm staying the course. Next stop, 2025!


Monday, April 1, 2019

Blackberry (BB) delivers a juicy quarter!


When I bought BB, I was convinced I was getting the deal of the century, seriously. I mean, here's a company with unrivaled chops in securing mobile endpoints (phones, cars, etc.) in a world where mobile endpoints are mushrooming.

BB fell.

When BB bought Cylance, a fast-growing AI cybersecurity company, I was certain, certain, I tell you, BB would soar.

BB fell.

Finally, BB announced a truly plump quarter and the stock jumped about 13%. Here are the specifics:

BlackBerry reported earnings of 11 cents per share, 5 cents ahead of analysts' expectations. Revenue of $257 million topped estimates by more than $14 million (a beat by 5.75%) and grew 7.5% year over year.

Whew. And then...

BB fell.

No idea what's going on here, but I'm not about to squish my BB shares. In fact, within 5 years, I predict -- based on nothing but gut -- BB will be trading in the $30's!