Happy New Year to all my bazillions of readers!
To kick off 2019, I'm doing something Warren Buffett says is essential, yet I've never done before: benchmarking. Schwab does it, sort of, but I think the act of writing out the value of each stock I own and why I own it at the beginning of every year, plus updating holdings as the year unfolds, will keep me honest with myself about how well -- or how poorly -- I really did.
I will create a page on this bog to update through out the year. You'll see it as Performance over on the right.
Here is what is in my portfolio right now. The prices are all from December 31, 2018, at close of markets.
---- STOCKS ----
AMD (AMD): $17.82
Long Intel's punching bag, AMD is hitting back for the first time since it launched the Opteron processors way back in 2003. Opteron woke Intel from a monopoly stupor and Intel then made sure AMD's moment of glory was just that, a moment. But now AMD is back with EPYC processors, which will soon be available using TSMC's 7nm process, which will put AMD ahead of Intel, who is still struggling with 10 nm and won't have anything ready until 2020. I would NEVER count Intel out, but in the near term, AMD has a massive upper hand.
Activision (ATVI): $46.80
I feel like I'm missing something here. ATVI muffed a mobile game launch (Diablo Immortal) and since then stock has fallen nearly 50%? Yes, the earnings weren't the best, Fortnite looms, and there have been some high profile departures, but ATVI is a marquee name in the red hot gaming space and I doubt you can count these guys out. So I bought in the high $40's.
Arista Networks: (ANET) $205.76
I was tempted to by this at nearly $300 a share, finally bit around $250, then sold around $260, then bought back in around $245, not looking super smart at the moment. But I believe in ANET's strategy of software defined networking in the cloud, and their revenue and profit growth, while slowing, has been impressive. I imagine the coming shift to 100GB ethernet will juice ANET's performance.
BlackBerry: (BB) $7.16
I thought I was so smart buying BB at around $10, then more around $9 and now look at me, I've got a dunce hat on. Or do I? I think BB's recent acquisition of Cylance, an AI-based cybersecurity company, was super smart and I trust that BB did not overpay. One to three years from now, I imagine Blackberry's stock price will make today's price look mighty sweet.
Cognex (CGNX): $37.71
I bought into these guys awhile ago at an average price of $30.28 and even though CGNX has been battered and bruised of late, I'm a huge believer in the core business of computer vision. I see good times ahead.
Etsy (ETSY): $47.29
ETSY is another stock I've owned for a bit (since 10.21.16) with an average price $9.75, but even with the big gain, ETSY can gain a lot more. I love their brand, handcraft in a world of mass-produced tech, that rocks!
Ionis Pharmaceutical (IONS): @ $51.36
I bought this after reading a click-bait article from Motley Fool, but I'm glad I did. Biotech is really just getting going and IONS seems well positioned to benefit, potentially in a big bang kind of way with the release of a blockbuster drug. Fingers crossed.
iRobot (IRBT): $81.32
I think what people miss about IRBT is that their robot vacuums suck up more than dust, they also suck up DATA, and that data is worth a lot more than dirt. With it, IRBT can make smarter vacuums and other types of robots faster than probably anyone else for the simple reason that effective AI needs a lot of data and no one else has nearly as much, at least not in the realm of home layouts. IRBT also has a patent portfolio that does not suck.
Lam Research (LRCX): $138.06
According to Yahoo Finance, LRCX "designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits worldwide." In other words, LRCX makes stuff that makes chips, which I think is a good business given, in my opinion, the likelihood that the world's appetite for silicon will just keep going up and up and up. Ordinarily, I would not buy shares in a company like this one because I really doubt it offers any sort of 10x upside, but Simply Wall Street, which I had just signed up for when I bought LRCX, painted LRCX as a good bet. At the very least, I'm hoping it pays for my SWS subscription!
Paycom (PYCM): $121.24
The world is going cloud, that's just a fact. And like Salesforce took CRM to the cloud and Amazon took infrastructure, Paycom is taking the creepily called process of human capital management to the cloud. I see very cloudy skies ahead, and that's a good thing.
PayPal (PYPL): $83.26
PYPL was the original alternative to VISA and Mastercard and other major payment networks, and featured a lower cost business model for good-as-cash payments. When PYPL started, VISA and Mastercard were enemies but today, PYPL is playing nice with the establishment. Regardless, I still think PYPL has a big advantage in that it retains the option to facilitate payments at lower cost, while not standing in the way of the status quo. Smart.
Sierra Wireless (SWIR): @ $13.60
The Internet of Things (IoT) cometh, really any day now, honestly, should be here before you know it. But seriously, despite delays IoT will rise and the number of connected things will mushroom well into the 10s of billions. Many will be connected to the net via wireless technology and that's where SWIR comes in. They make chips that connect things wirelessly. Not the most glamorous business but it is already pretty good and will get better.
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM): $38.16
Lithium ion batteries rule the roost for countless gizmos because they offer great energy density, light weight and rechargeability. And electric cars, which seem pretty imminent, will need a lot of lithium ion to power their motors. SQM is the world's largest producer of lithium right now so I figure it's a decent bet. Pays a dividend, too.
Spotify (SPOT): $112.16
I was not interested in SPOT until I heard an interview with Troy Carter, who SPOT has hired and who used to manage Lady Gaga and many others. His thoughts on streaming and on the still untapped marketing opportunities for SPOT changed my mind. A quick check of the share price, which was near an all time low, sealed the deal.
Talend (TLND): $36.01
If you know anything about AI and deep learning, you know that more data is good and more good data is great. TLND makes it easier for companies to bring together huge and varied data sets so they can be force fed to accelerated computers. If AI turns out to be only half as big as people expect, TLND should do really well. The share price has been pummeled of late (another reason I bought!) because TLND is having to shift from selling boxes loaded with software to selling software as a service. This is hurting revenues in the short term, but long term it should be a better business model (just look at CRM, ADBE and AWS).
---- INDEX FUNDS ----
Vanguard 2018 = 100
---- 401k ----
I'm not going to track my 401k, because I am still contributing to it.
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